The EU Referundum for the UK.

[Elanintheforest]

My guess is that it will take a good 3 to 5 years to complete the 1000s of man years work to implement Brexit.

However, looking at what is going on in Europe, and the disparate views at the recent Bratislava meeting, I'm not so sure there is going to be much of a European Union left to leave.

Mark

[elanfan1]

Terry,
The latest news is that article 50 will be triggered early in 2017 so therefore in theory we will have left the EU by early 2019. Until then, there's no chance of "getting our country back" whatever that means.

The UK is feeling a little smug at the moment, none of the horror scenarios have come to pass regarding the economy, house prices haven't collapsed, retail spending has increased, manufacturing output is up and exports are up thanks to a temporarily weakened pound.

Hinckley point is going ahead, EDF gives a sigh of relief and so does France. The Chinese are our best mates again, all sorts of back door deals have been done. The outlook is very good for post Brexit.

Later this year the USA will have a new president. I don't want to predict the outcome but " it'll be great!" The world will stop looking at the UK and Europe and shares in brick and cement producing companies will rise.

But only in Mehico as they'll be paying for it!

Trump -I do sort of admire him for saying what he and a lot of other people think without all the usual spin but he could be very dangerous and divisive. Hillary might be a safer pair of hands. But there's just something about (Mary) her that just doesn't sit right. Wouldn't be too surprised if some major revaluation were to come out, eventually.

[Spyder fan]

Terry,
I only look at the pictures, ask Simon!

[jimj]

Journalists are paid to be interesting, not necessarily truthful and show me one international economic forecaster who predicted the current price of oil 5 years ago. There are just too many intangible variables in economic forecasting to give them credence but people do. As for Moody`s and other credit rating agencies, they just destroy confidence when the opposite is needed in struggling economies.
When the governor of the Bank of England, who doesn`t sell newspapers or need votes, introduced "measures to boost the economy and employment" in light of the referendum decision, I asked myself; if that`s such a good idea, why not do it anyway.
The trouble is that too many people, bright people who could be usefully employed, earn a living predicting gloom that can be self fulfilling.
So there.
Jim

[AHM]

Nothing's happened because nothing has happened!
If and I say if article 50 is pressed early next year, it will increase the chance of an ultimate brexit ........ Then watch what happens!
U.K. Is only feeling smug if you read the Express!

When article 50 is invoked there will be little reaction - everyone is expecting it!

Sure our friendly Bankers will play up a bit to create some uncertainty (don't believe the protestations that they dislike uncertainty for that is how they make money) but fundamentally little Britain has the whole world as a market, and we won't have to wait around whilst 27 countries try to understand in if a certain type of cheese produced in the US can be called Fetta.

Vindicated rather than smug!

[terryp]

When article 50 is invoked there will be little reaction - everyone is expecting it!

Funny as the situation I am reading and so are my financial friends in London is that most people believe they wouldn't be so stupid as to invoke article 50.
Time will tell and if the current news is to be believed we won't have long to wait. We will then see who is right? ...........

[mark030358]

We voted OUT and OUT should mean OUT.

Its like saying we had a general election, my team lost and I want another election AND we'll keep on having them 'till my team wins.

OUT!!

[terryp]

Interesting so that means the party in opposition should never say anything to the rulling party , doesn't sound much like democracy!

Quoted on Twitter........#Brexit is a project of political genius in which a rich & powerful elite screw the poor while the poor think they're screwing the elite

Never a truer word.

[AHM]

Terry,
Are these the financial people that bought us the crash? And called the vote wrong. I'm not sure I'd trust their judgement.

There is no new news - article 50 early next year end (or rather beginning) of story.

I just love the way people pronounce what is good for all us ill educated poor people - how condescending. I'm sure you can find any view you care to read on twitter... What a load of bollocks - I don't read it myself!

The poor are always being screwed by the rich and powerful, the difference is that by voting they get to choose how they are screwed.

Here are a couple of predictions...

As the markets start to fuss about and create uncertainty people will look for safe havens. Gold will rise, article 50 will be invoked. The stock market will fall sharply. Money will move back into stocks. Everyone gets a big fat bonus for all their hard work and a job well done.

The alternative is to accept that article 50 is going to happen, but that is certain so doesn't provide a bonus opportunity.

[UAB807F]

Funny as the situation I am reading and so are my financial friends in London is that most people believe they wouldn't be so stupid as to invoke article 50.
Time will tell and if the current news is to be believed we won't have long to wait. We will then see who is right? ...........

Terry, you do realise that London was one of the very few areas in the UK which voted to Remain ? The bulk of the protests against the result were either in London or Scotland, which coincidentally were "Remain" areas.

If you look at the voting expressed in Electoral constituencies on a "first past the post" criteria (which is how our electoral system works) you will see that the actual voting was far more certain than the 52/48 would otherwise suggest. That's why Cameron resigned and why it's political suicide for the Conservatives to go against the vote; their own constituencies voted "Leave".

You will find lots of speculation regarding "Teresa May will never invoke A50". It sells papers, it creates discussions on TV and sells airtime. It's the current easy topic for reporters to hit on. It doesn't mean it's going to happen.

In the real world, people are expecting and accepting that the UK will leave. Even on the government polling website, the desire for a second referendum had dropped to 31%. Take a look for yourself.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/

If you look at what's happened with the EU since June 23rd they are moving forward on their own path and I've yet to see Junker, Merkel or any of the EU Commission come out with "hey, don't leave, let's talk about this".

The only sad fact is that the UK is no longer a good partner in the EU.

We opposed the appointment of Junker and were overruled.
We opposed and vetoed the formation of an EU military force (which is now going ahead).
We will not adopt the euro, nor will we partake in any rescue attempts for Eurozone countries.
We opt out of the "Ever Closer Union", which is the fundamental aim of the EU.
We oppose the ideal of free movement within the EU and in some areas of our country this is causing real problems for real people.
We will not enter the Schengen zone, another fundamental aim for the EU Commission.
Despite the fact that trade with the EU involves less paperwork, free movement, customs union, no tariffs, etc, the EU is accounting for a declining value of our exports. We export more to countries with which we have tariff barriers and no trade deals than we do to the EU, our supposedly best marketplace.

Still think we all want to stay in ? It's not a good match and both the EU and UK realise it. The EU was a brilliant idea when it was the EEC and a trading block but it's no longer the same deal. It's not what the UK wants or needs, it's time for us all to move on.

[terryp]

That's the funny part about all this, we all have predictions but no one knows what will happen.
We can only hope that the three stooges are doing all the figures and detail work and deciding the best way to reduce the number of UK industries sacrificed.
As for the EU it's just a trading block with regulatory control over goods and labour supply. It may change but it's not going anywhere.

[rgh0]

If the EU actually had any effective regulatory control over labor (and immigration) it would perhaps survive but its lack of control or agreement on how to control it is leading to its current problems unfortunately.

Australia on a proportional basis has taken more controlled immigration each year for the last 30 than the EU has in the last couple of years most of which is uncontrolled. The control of it is whats makes it work, the uncontrolled EU immigration is what will be its failure.

You have to draw a line somewhere, whether its 1 person, a million people or 100 million people. Where ever you draw it, you have to say what you will do with the first person above the limit who tries to exceed that line otherwise there are about 3 billion people who will come, as Europe is starting to realize.

cheers
Rohan

[UAB807F]

As for the EU it's just a trading block with regulatory control over goods and labour supply. It may change but it's not going anywhere.

Terry, if the EU was simply a trading block as you describe, I would be 100% Remain. I voted to stay in the EEC in the 1970s referendum and think the idea of open trading is a brilliant idea. I would vote again in favour of a trade only agreement and hope that will be where we end up in 2019.

But the EU has become more than a trading club. A trading partnership doesn't need a flag, an anthem, an army, but that's where the EU is headed. I have no problem with that and I genuinely wish them well and hope they prosper, if only because Europe will always be a good trading partner for the UK.

I just don't want the UK to be part of that particular club any more.

[terryp]

As for the EU it's just a trading block with regulatory control over goods and labour supply. It may change but it's not going anywhere.

Terry, if the EU was simply a trading block as you describe, I would be 100% Remain. I voted to stay in the EEC in the 1970s referendum and think the idea of open trading is a brilliant idea. I would vote again in favour of a trade only agreement and hope that will be where we end up in 2019.

But the EU has become more than a trading club. A trading partnership doesn't need a flag, an anthem, an army, but that's where the EU is headed. I have no problem with that and I genuinely wish them well and hope they prosper, if only because Europe will always be a good trading partner for the UK.

I just don't want the UK to be part of that particular club any more.

I think you may have believed all the stuff in the Daily Express
Google "balance of competence 2012" and find out why David Cameron buried it for his own aspirations to be prime minister again.
It basically was 2 year cross party investigation into the way the EU impinges onto the UK. In every respect it was found to either enhance or have no detriment in all areas investigated.

[billwill]

As for the EU it's just a trading block with regulatory control over goods and labour supply. It may change but it's not going anywhere.

Terry, if the EU was simply a trading block as you describe, I would be 100% Remain. I voted to stay in the EEC in the 1970s referendum and think the idea of open trading is a brilliant idea. I would vote again in favour of a trade only agreement and hope that will be where we end up in 2019.

But the EU has become more than a trading club. A trading partnership doesn't need a flag, an anthem, an army, but that's where the EU is headed. I have no problem with that and I genuinely wish them well and hope they prosper, if only because Europe will always be a good trading partner for the UK.

I just don't want the UK to be part of that particular club any more.

I think you may have believed all the stuff in the Daily Express
Google "balance of competence 2012" and find out why David Cameron buried it for his own aspirations to be prime minister again.
It basically was 2 year cross party investigation into the way the EU impinges onto the UK. In every respect it was found to either enhance or have no detriment in all areas investigated.

It must be you Terry that is reading only the Daily Express.

Jean-Claude Juncker calls for EU army
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ ... on-miltary

Jean-Claude Juncker presses ahead with plans for an EU army and announces plans for a European military HQ

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z4KcGzYJ00
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ry-HQ.html

EU faces 'existential crisis,' warns European Commission head
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/14/europ ... the-union/