The Elephant in the room

[hamm61]

About to be shot down , The logistics in the electric car debate are huge from generation to distribution , easy for me to adapt to as i have 2 drives and garages with power to both .Range of vehicle is an issue i use a medium sized VW Caddy for work ,the new VW Transported 6.1 EV has a range of under 80 miles ! not appealing .
Would it be possible to run Lotus Elans and other classics on Methanol , dangerous stuff in the wrong hands i know yet it is not a fossil fuel , I was involved with motor sport saftey for many years and Methanol was used ,cars had an orange disc . I can hear the guns being prepared .

I live about 3 miles from Manchester airport UK and an asthmatic that is very much under control , During the first lockdown with very little road traffic and zero air travel my breathing improved from a peak flow reading of 380 to around 550 quite an improvment, it has now dropped back to 500 as we have more traffic etc. There is clear evidence that pollution is causing health problems as I discussed with my practice nurse 2 days ago , so i can see the need to reduce pollution I just wonder if it is all a little rushed maybe to change the headlines !
Keep safe
Peter

[Andy8421]

While the trend to electric cars is inevitable the rate at which it happens in various countries will be driven by things like government mandates, tax incentives and the practicality of the infrastructure changes needed to support the country specific driving distances and population densities.

For example while space saver or no spare tyres are the norm in European cars these days, but their adoption in Australia is a major issue if you drive outside the major cities and where it may be a 5 day wait or a 1000 km drive to find a replacement tyre. As a result I have just needed to spend significant money to get a real spare tyre for my Touareg V8 TDI that has just replaced my Landcruiser (which had a real spare tyre under the floor) as my tow car and there is no place to put it except in the back of the car consuming luggage space needed for race day spares and equipment.

Having enough charging stations and the power supply infrastructure from major power lines to a remote recharging station to run them ( as well as enough coffee drinking seats while people wait) to recharge 500 to 1000 cars in an hour on a holiday weekend and where it takes 20 minutes per car on the country highways will also be a challenge to do economically compared to a current fossil fuel filling stations where it takes 2 minutes per car and all the needed fuel is easily delivered and cheaply stored in underground tanks to support the peak demand . Production of synthetic "green" carbon neutral petrol and diesel is possible and will maybe be more of an option for places like Australia. There is a lot of farms with a lot of diesel powered machinery spread very thinly across a huge area here and I don't see Tesla making battery electric wheat headers anytime soon .

I think that here in Australia I will be able to drive my Lotus and get fuel for my race car trailer tow car for the rest of my driving life at least .

Cheers
Rohan

All good points Rohan.

The technology continues to improve, but there are many cases where battery / electric makes no sense.

Just in answer to a couple of your points, a number of Tesla charging stations have associated batteries themselves to cover peak demand - analogous to your example of a filling station with an underground tank. While it may not be true in the outback, western countries have ample spare capacity to cope with very significant increase in charging load - as long as it is done at night (which for home charged cars is likely). The day / night load swing is huge, and clearly the infrastructure can deliver the day load, so is able to deliver the same at night. One fair criticism is that the 'peaker' plants used to deliver the last few GW at peak load are expensive, and not necessarily designed for 24x7 running, but the rest of the system, power lines, transformers, distribution and so on already have the capacity. If you are interested, the following link shows the day night /swing.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

Peak to trough in the UK is currently about 18GW. Lets say that averages to 9GW over a 12hour period, so the UK has spare capacity of 108GWh per day.

Tesla model 3 uses 250 Wh per km.

Average annual car mileage in the UK 12,000km or 32km per day, so assuming 70% power station to wheel efficiency, each car needs approximately 11KWh per day to cover the usage. If I have done my maths correctly, that means the UK currently has capacity for 10 million Tesla model 3s without any change to infrastructure.**

There are 38 million cars in the UK, so the system couldn't cope if every car was electric tomorrow, but this does indicate that the task isn't insurmountable.

**There are heroic assumptions in my maths (which could well be wrong), but it should be approximately correct. A fair criticism is that the capacity might not be in the right place - much of the UK grid was designed when the Midlands heavy industry was the main power load, now that isn't the case. A lot of the wind is in Scotland, and the load down south, so that is another bottleneck, but nothing that couldn't be fixed. Solar is of course not available at night, but isn't currently a big contributor in the UK.

[2cams70]

While the trend to electric cars is inevitable the rate at which it happens in various countries will be driven by things like government mandates, tax incentives and the practicality of the infrastructure changes needed to support the country specific driving distances and population densities.

I have insider knowledge of the automotive industry because that's where I work - in the product planning department. All countries except for the USA, the European union (no sure what happens to the UK), and Japan are technology takers. Powertrains for all other countries are selected on the basis of mixing and matching available off the shelf units in these three markets deemed to best suit the local environment. The global regulatory conditions are also controlled from these markets (FMVSS/USEPA in the USA, JASO in Japan and ECE in Europe). ECE however is becoming the dominant regulatory force - Asia, Australia and increasingly in Japan also.

If anything big happens regarding EV adoption in these three markets other markets will quickly follow.

I can see it happening for passenger cars. Diesel for heavy trucks will likely still be required for quite a bit longer. RIP. Enjoy it whilst you can. I for one will miss the sound, smoke and fury!!

[el-saturn]

ill start designing the bits ill need in ´40 for my elan: that´ll be 4 electro-motors. the 4 identical motors´ housing´ll also be uprights: they´ll look like F 1 uprights incl engines (hopefully) ---------------------lots of time left and super light batteries should be available in abundance by then!! sandy
PS: in the 80´s i co-designed a solar-mobile using engines from colmar, france.. - quite succesful btv

[Spyder fan]

I commute 2 days a week at the moment to the office of one of my clients at Stansted Essex, it’s a round trip of 160 miles using the M25 and M11 motorways. I have been making this trip pretty much every week for the last 5 years, but it’s been really noticeable this year that the number of EV’s on these roads has increased immensely.

In the UK a common benefit for employees is the company car, this harks back to the rather strange times in the 1970’s when we had a wage freeze and companies had to be creative in retaining their employees who otherwise would have no alternative but to look for a job elsewhere to get a pay rise. Her Majesty’s revenue & customs got wise of this and started taxing these “benefits in kind” initially based upon the vehicles list price and latterly on the vehicles emissions, therefore although the company car was still a nice perk it’s benefits were eroded over time to the point that it was more cost effective to provide your own vehicle and charge a mileage for use in connection with business. Currently 45p a mile up to 10,000 miles and tax free (25p over 10,000).

For this tax year the benefit in kind for new EV’s is zero no tax, next tax year it is 1% and 2% the year after. This is a huge gift to those lucky enough to be user choosers especially as they can charge back 11p per mile for providing electricity to recharge at home. Typically a benefit in kind for an average ice company car costs the employee £2000 per annum if their earnings allow them to stay within the 20% income tax band, however this rises to over £4000 per annum for so called higher wage earners paying 40 or 45% income tax on part of their salary. (The government values the benefit at around £10,000 a year. ) Therefore all the bosses and middle managers are choosing EV’s and the company accountant is happy too especially if the company buys rather than leases the vehicle as 100% of the purchase price is allowable as markdown in the first year of ownership rather than the standard 18% a year this means corporation tax is reduced by around £8000 based on a £40,000 vehicle purchase versus £1500 reduction for a similar priced ice car.

I predict a huge uptake and a similar scenario to the NYC example I posted earlier.

PS: I want a Polestar 2

[Craven]

As the UK government raises £ 28 billion in fuel tax and a further £ 40 billion in Road Tax per year, the illusion of low cost motoring by running an EV will be short term. If anyone thinks the government will continue to give up this golden goose of revenue is very much mistaken.

[trw99]

There are apparently some 164,000 EVs on U.K. roads.

A tiny number compared to ICE vehicles.

Clearly some way to go yet!

Tim

[MrBonus]

While the trend to electric cars is inevitable the rate at which it happens in various countries will be driven by things like government mandates, tax incentives and the practicality of the infrastructure changes needed to support the country specific driving distances and population densities.

For example while space saver or no spare tyres are the norm in European cars these days, but their adoption in Australia is a major issue if you drive outside the major cities and where it may be a 5 day wait or a 1000 km drive to find a replacement tyre. As a result I have just needed to spend significant money to get a real spare tyre for my Touareg V8 TDI that has just replaced my Landcruiser (which had a real spare tyre under the floor) as my tow car and there is no place to put it except in the back of the car consuming luggage space needed for race day spares and equipment.

Having enough charging stations and the power supply infrastructure from major power lines to a remote recharging station to run them ( as well as enough coffee drinking seats while people wait) to recharge 500 to 1000 cars in an hour on a holiday weekend and where it takes 20 minutes per car on the country highways will also be a challenge to do economically compared to a current fossil fuel filling stations where it takes 2 minutes per car and all the needed fuel is easily delivered and cheaply stored in underground tanks to support the peak demand . Production of synthetic "green" carbon neutral petrol and diesel is possible and will maybe be more of an option for places like Australia. There is a lot of farms with a lot of diesel powered machinery spread very thinly across a huge area here and I don't see Tesla making battery electric wheat headers anytime soon .

I think that here in Australia I will be able to drive my Lotus and get fuel for my race car trailer tow car for the rest of my driving life at least .

Cheers
Rohan

The thing non-EV owners often miss is that you don't need the same charging station capacity as you do fuel stations. For 99% of driving, all charging will be done at home, and if 220V outlets become common on homes, even holiday/distance driving means you're stopping at a charging station for the bare minimum to get you to your destination, so the 20+ minute stops are really only for very long distance driving with questionable charging at the final destination.

I've owned my car for a year and a half. I've been to a charging station roughly 10 times in that window, and I'd say half of those were related to the first handful of months before I had a proper charging outlet in my home.

Finally, the ability to fast charge is ramping up considerably with each passing year as is the capacity for batteries to take a fast charge.

[Spyder fan]

As the UK government raises £ 28 billion in fuel tax and a further £ 40 billion in Road Tax per year, the illusion of low cost motoring by running an EV will be short term. If anyone thinks the government will continue to give up this golden goose of revenue is very much mistaken.

I quite agree, currently in the uk the duty per litre of petrol or diesel is 57.95p or £2.61 per gallon

Some simple maths reveals that a petrol or diesel vehicle that averages 40 miles per gallon will consume 25 gallons of fuel per 1000 miles = revenue to HMRC of £65.25 per 1000 miles travelled. The average mileage in the UK being roughly 10,000 miles = £652.50 per year for this example to the exchequer for fuel.

With 35 million passenger vehicles registered in the UK minus the 164,000 EV's that Tim mentions that is indeed a lot of revenue that needs to be recouped somehow. Various online sources put the figure at around 27.5 billion pounds.

Plus we need to add the lost revenue in vehicle tax (formerly called road tax) which is zero for electric cars at the moment. Most ice cars are taxed at £150 - £475 per year after the first year of ownership. I can't find a figure for this, but it's a lot.

Then there's the various congestion and pollution charges for which EV's are exempt at the moment. For instance if I drive my previously "Green" diesel car into central London I will be charged £27.50. £15 for congestion and £12.50 for driving one of those awful polluting diesels that do 70mpg and that we were all encouraged to buy a few years back. Apparently 200 million pounds was raised last year by Transport for London.

So allow at least £1000 per year in taxes in the future for driving an electric car on average. Of course the government will attempt to use the smokescreen and confusion of road pricing to extort more than this amount.

[Elanintheforest]

Hence the government are looking again at introducing a pay by the mile system varying depending on vehicle characteristics / road section and location / time of day Alan,

[Spyder fan]

Join the debate now

[The Veg]

As the UK government raises £ 28 billion in fuel tax and a further £ 40 billion in Road Tax per year, the illusion of low cost motoring by running an EV will be short term. If anyone thinks the government will continue to give up this golden goose of revenue is very much mistaken.

Some perspective from over here:

Among US states, until a few years ago Georgia (where I live) was probably the second-friendliest to EVs after California. Unusual for the non-progressive southeast. We had a generous tax-credit for EVs on top of the federal credit. EV sales in the Atlanta metro area (the only real 'big city' in the state) were strong.

Then our state government, controlled by the party that tends to be anti-progressive and aligned with the interests of the fossil fuel industry, canceled the EV tax-credit and replaced it with a $200 surcharge on registration fees for EVs, claiming it was necessary make up for lost fuel-tax revenue (fuel taxes are the primary funding source for road infrastructure in USA). If that was really true they might have handled it in a fairer way rather than a one-size-fits-all tax that feels punitive. Sales plummeted and for a little while after this change, Atlanta became the USA's hot-spot for scoring a deal on a used or remaindered Nissan Leaf.

******
People with money continue to buy Teslas in droves, since they're such a fashion statement. A ten-space Tesla charging station has recently opened near me, and it is located just a few hundred yards from Interstate 85- part of Tesla's promise to make road-trips possible. As an aside, a friend of mine who owns a Model 3 has made some long trips in his and I know of a stand-up comic who recently drove his Model 3 from LA to Atlanta, and did a show at each charging station along the way.
I wouldn't buy a Tesla if I could afford it because 1) they actually rate quite low in quality-surveys and 2) Tesla's refusal to allow parts and support for servicing beyond their dealers, and the company's firm opposition to right-to-repair legislation has put them on my bad-list.

The Ford Mach-E is receiving some ridicule for perverting the Mustang brand, but I predict that it will do OK whenever it finally hits the market.

Word is out that GM will be reviving the Hummer brand in the form of an electric pickup truck.

[Craven]

Andy8421,
“Peak to trough in the UK is currently about 18GW. Lets say that averages to 9GW over a 12hour period, so the UK has spare capacity of 108GWh per day.”

Unless the power required to charge EV’s comes from non-fossil fuels the arguments for the electric vehicle mostly disappears, so the need to meet demand is still a challenge.

Hamm61,
“Would it be possible to run Lotus Elans and other classics on Methanol , dangerous stuff in the wrong hands i know yet it is not a fossil fuel , I was involved with motor sport saftey for many years and Methanol was used ,cars had an orange disc . I can hear the guns being prepared .”

Self-charging EV’s using a synthetic fuel seems to be a possibility, not sure what synthetic would include but we use Ethanol now.

[StressCraxx]

It's been done. The gauntlet has been thrown....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCH5-Du ... e=youtu.be

[2cams70]

Interesting video. Just be aware though that the more people that do this the more the decision makers will try to force classic cars off the road or insist that they be converted to EV. They'll just say - here you go, take this as an example there's no problem for you. I've got nothing against EV's in the appliance role as a commuter car. They are great in that respect and any modern EV designed from the ground up for that role will vastly exceed the performance of any EV based on a converted 50 year old ICE classic car in that role despite what's being promoted in this video. I didn't see much in the way of objective hard data to support some of the claims either. eg - weighbridge ticket weights before and after conversion is easily done and could have been stated. The balancing forces of weight versus vehicle range still remain significant issues with EV's.
Whilst I'm certainly not trying to imply it's the case here from OEM experience I can say that currently there are a lot of EV conversion charlatans operating in this space. It's the new gold rush and so much objectivity and critical thinking has gone out the window. There's currently a big legal case happening in the USA. A large OEM not having the necessary technology or development knowledge immediately at hand had a quite a large number of it's existing vehicles converted to EV by an outside contractor. The contractor convinced the OEM to accept them as a supplier on the basis that they had secret hush hush superior "Proprietary Technology" in relation to EV's (I kid you not). Of course the performance of the converted vehicles didn't meet expectations and the company that was contracted to do the work was eventually exposed after having been paid significant sums of money by both the OEM involved and the government. Turned out the founder of the business had no technical expertise in EV whatsoever. His background was in concreting.
Personally speaking for me at least 70% of the character of a classic car lies in it's engine and gearbox - the sound and feel. Like a fine wine each one is subtly different. Unfortunately electric motors just don't do it for me. Don't sound good and don't look good. I like the feel of a slick shifting gearbox also and pressing a clutch pedal and the manual blipping of a throttle during downshifts.

Don't get me completely wrong though - I do admire the hard work and thought that has gone into this conversion and this guy for having a go!