Lotus Elan

plus 2s on the road totals?

PostPost by: yandy » Mon May 18, 2009 3:15 pm

584 (in the UK).

OK, that's a very derived guess. I'm an ecologist in real life - we do that sort of thing and call it science. Here's how it works:
A rough and ready method of estimating wild populations utilises 'mark-recapture' and the Lincoln-Peterson equation, a refined version of which is expressed: N=((M+1)(C+1)/(R+1))-1, where N is the estimated population; M is the number of individuals captured and marked at first sweep; C is the number of individuals captured at a second sweep; and R is the number of individuals recaptured, that were already marked.

We can extract these numbers from data on cars advertised for sale over the last 14 months considering the first 7 months as the first sweep, and the second 7 months as the second sweep. R is derived from those sold in the first period and clearly resold within the second period.

M=92
C=43
R=6

Plug it all in, apply jump leads in the correct sequence, and the answer pops out - 584 (rounded to the nearest whole number in anticipation of Jon's car being finished.

OK, so the list of statistical and methodological disclaimers is long, rendering all this eyewateringly dubious (I won't bore you with them) but these notwithstanding, the figure, approximately 10% of those originally made, doesn't sound unconvincing.

I'm going out now...
Exceedingly yellow '68 +2

Todays top tip: create a spooky lighting effect by forgetting to switch off and remove your torch from the nose area before refitting the grille.
User avatar
yandy
Second Gear
Second Gear
 
Posts: 51
Joined: 20 Nov 2007
Location: Dorset

PostPost by: terryp » Mon May 18, 2009 3:35 pm

Andy

WOW !
I'm convinced

All the best
Terry
terryp
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 1666
Joined: 29 Nov 2007

PostPost by: JJDraper » Mon May 18, 2009 5:17 pm

Nearly 6,000 +2s made? Surely not....

Have you allowed for population dynamics and the cyclical relationship between predator/prey, a la Lynx/Snowshoe hares? The analogy being that of prices of the parts of a scrapped car versus the price of a whole car - less cars mean prices go up and scrapped cars get rebuilt as new cars, leading to a fall in used car prices and more scrapped cars and so on.

More work needed on the sampling. Perhaps a capture and release program at places where they congregate such as Donnington or Castle Coombe.

Jeremy
User avatar
JJDraper
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 1012
Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Location: Buckingham, UK

PostPost by: andyelan » Tue May 19, 2009 5:11 pm

Hi Everyone

Just to be serious for a moment, I can quite believe there are now only around 10% of original Plus 2s left on the road judging by the number broken and sold for parts on e-bay. I think that's really rather sad for such a wonderful car.

Andy
andyelan
Fourth Gear
Fourth Gear
 
Posts: 555
Joined: 28 Feb 2008

PostPost by: JJDraper » Tue May 19, 2009 5:47 pm

From my sketchy and rather dubious copies of factory records, I can account for 3446 +2s manufactured. Not sure of the split around the globe, but 10% survival seems a very low figure. In my dealings with DVLA to correct some errors in their records, I have been given a standard letter from Lotus to the DVLA which suggests a much lower rate of attrition. I know a lot of cars have been and continue to be scrapped, but I think this may be because we notice them more. If one appears on Ebay, pretty much everybody on this forum will be aware of it. How many a year? 10, 15? Over 40 years that only makes around 550 scrapped.. a crude measure I know. Hem Passagen ( http://hem.passagen.se/plus2/main.html ) ran a +2 register for a while and it seemed to suggest a pretty good survival rate. Unfortunately the site appears to have gone and the useful information it contained is no more. Did anyone make a copy of it?

To answer the figure for 'on the road' totals in the UK, I guess only the DVLA would know. Anyone know how to get that info??! FOI act?

Jeremy
User avatar
JJDraper
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 1012
Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Location: Buckingham, UK

PostPost by: msd1107 » Tue May 19, 2009 11:20 pm

See

http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://hem ... /main.html

for a history of the site

David
1968 36/7988
User avatar
msd1107
Fourth Gear
Fourth Gear
 
Posts: 854
Joined: 24 Sep 2003
Location: Hollywood, CA USA

PostPost by: 1964 S1 » Wed May 20, 2009 3:51 am

My library puts the Type 50 production at 5168 units, minus or plus 2. I had always thought it was about 10,000, don't know where I got that figure from !
I've got 1 here in the usa and I know of 3 others that have been parted out...
Good luck on getting a total..... five or ten years from now the cosmic data base will probably give a worldwide total of legally registered cars by marque and model...
1964 S1
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 1496
Joined: 15 Sep 2003
Location: Hamilton County, Ohio

PostPost by: JJDraper » Wed May 20, 2009 6:38 am

My earlier figure must be a gross underestimate! I checked and I have missed out the last two years of production.... missing on my spreadsheet, must be worth another 2-3,000 units.

Jeremy
User avatar
JJDraper
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 1012
Joined: 17 Oct 2004
Location: Buckingham, UK

PostPost by: Fraggle » Sun Jul 05, 2009 10:56 am

Hi all.
Just stumbled accross this community and joined instantly! You can add another plus 2 to the list shortly. I live in Perth, Western Australia and bought a 68 plus 2 which had been garaged for 20 years. I am slowly rebuilding it and hope to have it on the road by next January. It would be interesting to know how many are in W.A. I know there are a few over east, but mine could possably be the only one here.
Just like to say what an excellent community this is, filled with great and helpfull people. Keep up the good work guys.

Cheers,

Jason
Fraggle
First Gear
First Gear
 
Posts: 22
Joined: 05 Jul 2009

PostPost by: syrius » Sun Jul 05, 2009 5:58 pm

terryp wrote:Alan
It would be great to do a French Plus 2 Register, but I wonder whether we would fall fail of the dreaded data protection act or a French version (they probably have 4!)
As we are only talking about max 25 cars, we could send an email to all we know asking to pass the word to other owners and see what happens.
We could have info such as: -
Registration No / Original Registration No / Chassis No / Date of Immatrication / Date of Import / Exact Model / Gearbox / Carbs / Trim / Name / Dept / Email etc
I directly know of 3 other plus 2s with a few more linked to those owners
What do you think?

Best Regards
Terry


good idea Terry to do a French register for +2
I'm ready to help you ;
i try to known how many ares registred on the Lotus Club de France
For the moment i known 10 +2 but i believe there are more than 25 runing in france today .
i will check
best regards

Serge
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
syrius
Second Gear
Second Gear
 
Posts: 90
Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Location: France

PostPost by: Tonyw » Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:18 pm

Jason,

I know of one other plus 2 in Perth and another DHC like mine, the FHC is in DAlkeith from memory and the other DHC is in Subico, I am in Mundaring, PM me and I will give you my phone number if you want to compare notes etc.

Tony W
Second childhood? no just an extension of my first.
Tonyw
Third Gear
Third Gear
 
Posts: 404
Joined: 23 Sep 2006
Location: Perth Australia

PostPost by: garyeanderson » Mon Jul 06, 2009 1:33 pm

Jerry Rude has done a great job of compiling all known Europa info. The registry is one that could be modeled after. 1635 Europas out of nearly 10k is a very good number, no matter how it was done.

http://www.lotus-europa.com/registry.html
User avatar
garyeanderson
Coveted Fifth Gear
Coveted Fifth Gear
 
Posts: 3128
Joined: 12 Sep 2003
Location: Massachusetts, U.S.A.

PostPost by: LotusNWT » Tue Jul 07, 2009 3:59 am

I know there is one in Montreal and I have noticed postings from Calgary where someone is doing a frame off restoration on a plus two. And there is my 68 in the Northwest Territories. Those are the only ones I know of in Canada. There must be a few more out there though.

Glen
LotusNWT
First Gear
First Gear
 
Posts: 19
Joined: 16 Jun 2008
Location: Northwest Territories, Canada

PostPost by: Fraggle » Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:58 pm

I know of one other plus 2 in Perth and another DHC like mine, the FHC is in DAlkeith from memory and the other DHC is in Subico, I am in Mundaring, PM me and I will give you my phone number if you want to compare notes etc.

Tony W

Hi Tony. Great to hear there are others on the road in Perth. You just don't see them around. Was the other +2 a red one by any chance? Dad owned a red on over 20 years ago after he sold his Elite. He still wonder's if it is getting around Perth anymore. I will PM you when I get back to Perth. ( I work away) It would be good to catch up with other Elan owners as i dont think there is a club of any kind in W.A.

Cheers,
Jason
Fraggle
First Gear
First Gear
 
Posts: 22
Joined: 05 Jul 2009

PostPost by: syrius » Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:10 pm

HI

Today we know 17 Elan +2 on the French road included Terry's +2

Serge
Last edited by syrius on Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
syrius
Second Gear
Second Gear
 
Posts: 90
Joined: 13 Jan 2009
Location: France
PreviousNext

Total Online:

Users browsing this forum: Quattro123 and 7 guests