Tariffs!

[UAB807F]

(part quote)
Businesses have left the UK, the finance industry - once the bastion of the UK has been decimated. GDP is down and forecast to stay down. The UK has lost a labour stream that is vital to continuity of what they had. Yes, one day, it might all come back, but it will be hard work requiring much dedication.

Hal,

The statement you made above is very misleading, especially the comments on GDP forecast. Most of the models I've seen on that front have assumed that once out of the EU, the UK won't do anything to improve the situation and that's how they get such dire projections.

But as for "down and staying down" I suggest you look a bit closer. 2020 dropped because of covid and EU negotiations, both of which are now going to drop out of 2021 where the UK GDP is forecast to bounce back.

The UK Finance Industry decimated ? really ? I suggest you look a bit harder and maybe look at the stability of the EU banking system. Let's revisit that conversation in say 2 or 3 years.

The UK, even in 2020 with the sky about to fall in "because Brexit", still had a net immigration of over 300,000. That's roughly another Bradford or Swansea every year. Check for yourself if you don't believe me.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/august2020
and
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/cities/united-kingdom

Yes, businesses move countries and that is something that happens continually, not just "because Brexit". We've lost plenty of industries over the last 50yrs and no doubt will continue to do so. But even so, we seem to manage and that's mainly down to recognising that some industries just no longer fit and there are better things to be concentrating on. For example, where the Covid vaccines came from ?

The UK isn't a bad place to be. I've no problem at all with folks wanting to move away for a better lifestyle or weather, but please don't insist on telling us where we're going wrong and expect us to live how you want us to.

Brian

[englishmaninwales]

Reduced by only 5% for me on my UK Pension it is more like 20%.
Alan

Firstly, I freely admit I am not a pension/finance/currency expert, but to my mind this was always going to be a bet either way?

I’m not a financial risk taker and I would not want to have my pension, or significant part, and therefore standard of living, dictated by an exchange rate. (I do accept it is necessary when personal circumstances can make this unavoidable.)

Nobody can predict what is around the corner - banking collapse, war, Brexit, pandemic viral infection (this was probably one of the more predictable of all calamities- it’s just been made worse, in my view, by the politicians backing the wrong horse and incompetent management). I think also the Euro currency is another medium term gamble (strong German productivity and exports with an undervalued Euro coupled with the need to prop up several weak economies).

No doubt someone will correct my armchair economics!
Malcolm

[The Veg]

I think also the Euro currency is another medium term gamble (strong German productivity and exports with an undervalued Euro coupled with the need to prop up several weak economies).

Funny, you reminded me of this article that I read just an hour ago:
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/how- ... ket-newtab

[661]

Hi All, and a Happy New Year to you.
Please can you turn down the language. I am that `slime` who voted with the majority to correct the balance of power controlling our country.
I find your language offensive. This is not the place for insults. Please keep them for in the bar.
It has finally been achieved after a long struggle with bureaucracy to disentangle us from Europe. I am looking forward to the future to see how the businessmen sort out the details once we get past the politicians.
I will read and listen to rational argument at any time although I will not join in.
For me this forum is about cars.
Eric in Burnley
1967 S3SE DHC

Well said Eric.
Insulting ( as opposed to a healthy arguement) because of a belief has no place in 2021, and certainly not within our haloed turf

[The Veg]

Insulting ( as opposed to a healthy arguement) because of a belief has no place in 2021, and certainly not within our haloed turf

That comes back to something I'd hinted at a few posts ago: that ultimately we're all on the same team (be it as citizens of our respective countries or as webizens of a common-interest forum), so we'd be wise to figure out how to get along constructively. In regards to things in my country this causes me a great deal of bother.

[alan.barker]

+♡1 Chill Chill
Alan

[englishmaninwales]

I think also the Euro currency is another medium term gamble (strong German productivity and exports with an undervalued Euro coupled with the need to prop up several weak economies).

Funny, you reminded me of this article that I read just an hour ago:
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/how- ... ket-newtab

That’s interesting.
But the ideological EU bureaucrats will always force co-operation from weaker economies. Just ask Greece. The Brits tried to be unco-operative and eventually lost (there were some wins along the way) so eventually chose to leave (and were able to so because of the £); I don’t think there will be other leavers from countries that adopted the Euro.
Bumpy road ahead.
Malcolm

[Elanintheforest]

I don't think that there will be too many levers from countries that benefit financially from the EU either, and there are quite a few of them. The German and French voters may just get fed up with funding the beneficiaries so much though after Brexit, especially when some of the newer members don't seem to want to play the single European approach to refugees, pandemic management and other fundamental issues.

https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/ne ... eu-budget/

[EPC 394J]

That’s a very illuminating link Mark.

Any idea why there’s such a huge difference between the two neighbouring countries of the Netherlands (Net contributors of €4,877 million with 17 million people) and Belgium? (Net beneficiaries of €2,590 million with 11.5 million people)

I know the UK have been charged for leaving, but it will certainly be interesting to see how that table changes in the next 5 years.

Apparently a German MEP said the UK leaving the EU was like 19 small to medium sized countries all leaving at the same time! How on earth will Spain now be expected to build any more empty roads or airports!

[alan.barker]

I just saw 62% of Scots want to be in the EU.
BoJo doesn't want the Scots to have a referendum for Independance but they have a right to have one.
Or does BoJo believe in "do as your told and not as i/we do".
Imho i think it is only fair for them to have a say in their future.
Alan

[rgh0]

I just saw 62% of Scots want to be in the EU.
BoJo doesn't want the Scots to have a referendum for Independance but they have a right to have one.
Or does BoJo believe in "do as your told and not as i/we do".
Imho i think it is only fair for them to have a say in their future.
Alan

It is really a question of how far do you want to go back into history to allow smaller and smaller groups vote for independence and self determination and to claim land rights and special benefits from being dispossessed at some time in the past by their current nation.

No easy or logical answer to that as most countries around the world have found. Once the world was made up of small tribal groups and then city states before small nation states evolved and then larger nation states and empires (of which the EU is the most recent invention in the realm of empires). Many of the worlds problems are caused by people fighting to reverse this historic trend over the last 2000 years where they disagree with their tribe / city/ small nation/ large nation ending up in something larger. At least Brexit did it without a civil war as has occurred in so many other places.

cheers
Rohan
From an Australian Federation where almost every internal group over the last 40 thousand years has opposed its creation at one time or another despite it being the "Lucky country" then and even more so now !

[elanfan1]

There are more pro EU voters in London alone than the whole of Scotland! Remember they only have 5 million population. Perhaps central London should go back into the EU.

They had their ‘once in a generation’ referendum and the independence side lost. So do we keep having referenda until they get the result they want just once?

Scotland joining the EU I’d suggest is nigh on impossible. They already run one of the highest deficits in Europe. Post independence they’d go broke. The U.K. would have to withdraw its nuclear facilities, no more financial support, they’d have to join the euro as they wouldn’t be able to keep the pound. I reckon a lot of big business would leave Scotland. If the young people in Scotland realised the financial position that wee Jimmy Crankie would put the people of Scotland in they’d never vote for it. Note they’ve reduced the voting age to 16 on this subject, to attracted the naive stars in their eyes idealistic immature voters.

I reckon if England Wales and NI had a vote on it they’d be out with the view if the ungrateful fekkers don’t want to be a part of the U.K. then let them try to fend for themselves. I’m a Welshman and some idiots here are trying to push for a similar referendum. No chance!

[rgh0]

Independence for Sussex and roll London( or at least the South bank of the Thames) into that. They were once an independent kingdom so why not now ? The new South Saxony could vote to re-join the German Federation and thus the EU again

cheers
Rohan
Where my local Thai restaurant has become the source of a Covid cluster imported from those heathen in New South Wales

[HCA]

I started this thread with the only intention of forecasting whight lay ahead of us in the EU buying parts for our Elans! Continuing on this theme sorting through the myriad of small businesses in the UK who are still not ready or just throwing the towel in, our situation re parts is now clear:

We do not pay any tarrifs thankfully. I had a quick word with SJ and Sue Millar and both will continue sending to the EU. As they send to the US, Australia and SA, it is no hardship, although Sue did say that no delivery company thus far is accepting orders for EU delivery, but she believes this is short term.

Both will send parts VAT free plus delivery charges as they are given to them at the time,

On arival in France, the delivery carriers will act as customs agents and collect the TVA due to France for which there will be a transaction charge. Note that TVA will be applied to not only the parts but also on the transaction charge whatever they might be.

It will cost! I remember from my US muscle car days in the UK, I had some eye watering 'transaction' charges, yet much of the time, the parts were delivered straight to my door without any VAT requests!

Happy days!
https://www.chronopost.fr/en/import-0

[englishmaninwales]

I just saw 62% of Scots want to be in the EU.
BoJo doesn't want the Scots to have a referendum for Independance but they have a right to have one.
Or does BoJo believe in "do as your told and not as i/we do".
Imho i think it is only fair for them to have a say in their future.
Alan

I agree with you Alan. I think the referendum will be unavoidable.
As has been earlier in this thread, the debate may expose the SNP. (There are difficult areas they’ll need to explain to the electorate; SNP performance on the economy, budget deficit, NHS, teaching; future issues concerning currency, national debt share, joining the EU, armed forces, Faslane, hard borders etc.)
On the upside, if Scotland votes to leave the UK it’ll save the taxpayer in England a fortune.
My personal view is that we are stronger together.
Malcolm

Edited to added: apologies to elanfan, I must type faster!